October 2020 - Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Lower devaluation.

The LAECO Alliance countries project a lower devaluation of their currencies for 2021, compared to the one presented in 2020. This trend is expected to continue in 2022 in most countries, except for Argentina where an increase in devaluation is forecast for the Argentinean Peso in that year.

September 2020 - Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Prices going down.

The countries of the LAECO Alliance project an average inflation of 1.40% for 2020, a figure lower than the 2.58% presented in 2019. The COVID-19 crisis will also be reflected in prices, although the figures are expected to increase again from 2021.

August 2020 - Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Colombia slightly above the average for Latin America.

The economic growth forecasts of the LAECO Alliance countries project an expected growth of -9.14% for the countries of the region in 2020. Colombia is slightly above this average, with a forecast of -7%

July 2020 - Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultancies LAECO: Growth recovery for 2021

According to the LAECO Alliance countries, the average of the growth forecasts in Latin America in 2020 is -9.6%, and -7.4% excluding Venezuela. The economies are expected to recover in 2021, forecasting an average growth for that year of 3.5% and 4.1% excluding Venezuela.

June 2020 - Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultancies LAECO: Growth projections for 2020

The LAECO Alliance adjusts its forecasts for growth, inflation, unemployment and other macroeconomic variables of the Latin American economies for 2020. A sharp drop in the economic growth of the countries is expected, which varies between -0, 6% forecast for Paraguay, and -27.5% forecast for Venezuela.

May 2020 - Latín American Alliance of Economic Consultancies juncture report: Projections on the effect of the COVID-19 crisis over the economies

The LAECO Alliance publishes its forecasts for economic growth, inflation, unemployment and other macroeconomic variables of the Latin American economies for May 2020. A significant contraction is forecast in all countries due to the crisis generated by COVID- 19, which in some economies is accentuated by the decrease in the prices of oil and other commodities. In the Colombian case, Econometría Consultores forecasts a GDP variation of -3.0% for the current year. For more information on this analysis, request your subscription to the LAECO Monthly Newsletter.

April 2020 - COVID-2019 special report LAECO

The Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultancies - LAECO presents a special report about the COVID-19 situation in Latin America and the governments responses to face the crisis.

To view the document click here

November 2019 - A regular economic performance mixed with political uncertainty

CPI inflation in October was 3.86%, which is near to the upper limit of Banco de la Republica's target range. The economy is expected to grow to 3.2% in 2019, which is consistent with the growth of 3.3% of GDP in the third quarter of 2019. 

In terms of politics, The Constitutional Court declared that the Ley de financiamiento presented by the National Government was unenforceable. However, the Minister of Finance was allowed to file the bill again, which will possibly be accepted with marginal modifications. On the other hand, on October 27 regional elections took place throughout the country, which showed favourable results for the centre parties, and showed that the right and left parties had lost influence in many regions  Finally, on November 21 there will be protest marches against the policies promoted by the National Government, to which multiple sectors of the population have joined

October 2019 - Uncertainty arises due to possible tax reform reversal

Economy: In recent days, the exchange rate has reached record levels in excess of 3,500 COP to 1 USD. This can be explained by the decrease in oil prices, the uncertainty generated by the trade conflict between the United States and China, and the risk associated with the plaint of the last tax
reform’s unconstitutionality, Ley de Financimiento. The reversal of this tax reform would reduce the tax collection and could affect Colombia's credibility in international markets. Conversely, inflation is approaching the upper target range of 4% (3.82% in September, year-on-year) and will possibly
increase in the coming months due to exchange rate pressures. A moderate growth scenario is expected (3.2% growth is forecasted for 2019), with a high level of unemployment (estimated at 10.7% for 2019) and a high current account deficit (4.6% of GDP). These potential figures would limit the
monetary and fiscal policy space.

Despite the rearmament, peace still stands

In August, annual inflation was 3.75%. The inflation of tradable goods excluding food was 1.5%, which is higher than the July figure of 1.4%. Despite the devaluation of the COP in recent months, the low level of demand has mitigated its effect on prices. On the other hand, the current account deficit for the first half of 2019 was 4.73% of GDP. Although this level is high, it is not worrying because foreign direct investment covers this imbalance, which has increased by 24.4%.  
 
The peace process between the Colombian State and FARC was set back after the declaration of rearmament by Iván Márquez and the FARC dissidents. The statements supporting the rearmament coming from the group ELN raise concerns about a possible alliance between the dissidents and ELN. The terrorist attack on January 17, which was claimed by ELN, ended the possibility of a peace deal between the Government of Colombia and ELN. While this is worrisome, it is necessary to remember that 98% of the members of the FARC still support the peace process. This attempted subversion of the process by dissidents could further destabilize the peace process but it does not affect the continuity of its implementation. On the other hand, the new guerrillas are expected to focus their activities on drug trafficking. However, the absence of ideological and political parallels between this new group and the ELN makes a permanent and strong alliance between them unfeasible.